Throughout the course of our research, we wanted to answer six main questions:. In the past, the singularity has been more the realm of science fiction to explore. Our goal with this survey was to garner a grounded opinion about the singularity from dozens of AI experts, as well as their thoughts about how humanity might prepare for the future of AI.
Before we continue, we should note that this not a definitive depiction of the future; only possibilities. There was much disagreement among our experts, including whether or not the singularity would occur. But regardless, understanding the possibilities will be important for anyone in government or industry to stay ahead of the curve. As one of our respondents said:. If we were to ask Google Maps to navigate us to the singularity, what route would it take us?
And when would we reach our destination?
Our experts responded with a wide range of answers. Below is a graphical breakdown of their responses:.
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The first questions we asked our experts was when they expected the singularity to occur. The timeline predictions varied widely:. The predictions skew towards a date sooner than or even potentially sooner than Dreyfus said:. It shows no understanding of the failure of all work in AI. Even just formulating such a questionnaire is biased and is a waste of time.
In other words, we recognize and understand that like the other surveys discussed in this report, our survey may fall victim to selection bias.
The people who responded to us are perhaps more likely to believe that the singularity will not only occur but will occur sooner than later. That said, why did the experts select the dates they selected many of which are within our lifetimes? Sectors from pharma to banking are becoming host to dozens of annual AI events, and hundreds or thousands of sector-specific AI vendor companies.
In the next three sections of the article, we compare our findings to those of two other surveys of AI researchers that were conducted in the last four years and the opinions of two prominent futurist inventors and AI thought leaders. We start with a survey from Muller and Bostrom.
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Peter H. Graphic Novels : SciFi D. The existential threat from genetic technologies is already here: the same technology that will soon make major strides against cancer, heart disease, and other diseases could also be employed by a bioterrorist to create a bioengineered biological virus that combines ease of transmission, deadliness, and stealthiness, that is, a long incubation period.
The tools and knowledge to do this are far more widespread than the tools and knowledge to create an atomic bomb, and the impact could be far worse.
But the idea of relinquishing new technologies such as biotechnology and nanotechnology is already being advocated. I argue in the book that this would be the wrong strategy. Besides depriving human society of the profound benefits of these technologies, such a strategy would actually make the dangers worse by driving development underground, where responsible scientists would not have easy access to the tools needed to defend us.
So how do we protect ourselves? I discuss strategies for protecting against dangers from abuse or accidental misuse of these very powerful technologies in chapter 8. The overall message is that we need to give a higher priority to preparing protective strategies and systems.
We need to put a few more stones on the defense side of the scale.
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One strategy would be to use RNAi, which has been shown to be effective against viral diseases. We would set up a system that could quickly sequence a new virus, prepare a RNA interference medication, and rapidly gear up production.
We have the knowledge to create such a system, but we have not done so. We need to have something like this in place before its needed. Ultimately, however, nanotechnology will provide a completely effective defense against biological viruses.
The existential threat from engineered biological viruses exists right now. Okay, but how will we defend against self-replicating nanotechnology? There are already proposals for ethical standards for nanotechnology that are based on the Asilomar conference standards that have worked well thus far in biotechnology.
These standards will be effective against unintentional dangers. For example, we do not need to provide self-replication to accomplish nanotechnology manufacturing.
But what about intentional abuse, as in terrorism? Blue goo to protect us from the gray goo! Yes, well put. Ultimately, however, strong AI will provide a completely effective defense against self-replicating nanotechnology. This is starting to sound like that story about the universe being on the back of a turtle, and that turtle standing on the back of another turtle, and so on all the way down. So what if this more intelligent AI is unfriendly?
Another even smarter AI? History teaches us that the more intelligent civilization—the one with the most advanced technology—prevails. But I do have an overall strategy for dealing with unfriendly AI, which I discuss in chapter 8.
There are limits to the exponential growth inherent in each paradigm. In the s they were shrinking vacuum tubes to keep the exponential growth going and then that paradigm hit a wall.
It kept going, with the new paradigm of transistors taking over. Each time we can see the end of the road for a paradigm, it creates research pressure to create the next one. Yes, I discuss these limits in the book. The ultimate 2 pound computer could provide 10 42 cps, which will be about 10 quadrillion 10 16 times more powerful than all human brains put together today.
If we allow it to get hot, we could improve that by a factor of another million. And when we saturate the ability of the matter and energy in our solar system to support intelligent processes, what happens then?
Which will take a long time I presume. Well, that depends on whether we can use wormholes to get to other places in the Universe quickly, or otherwise circumvent the speed of light.
If wormholes are feasible, and analyses show they are consistent with general relativity, we could saturate the universe with our intelligence within a couple of centuries.
I discuss the prospects for this in the chapter 6. Other natural things include malaria, Ebola, appendicitis, and tsunamis.
Many natural things are worth changing. In my view, death is a tragedy. It's a tremendous loss of personality, skills, knowledge, relationships. We've rationalized it as a good thing because that's really been the only alternative we've had. But disease, aging, and death are problems we are now in a position to overcome. Wait, you said that the golden era of biotechnology was still a decade away.
If humans lived many hundreds of years with no other change in the nature of human life, then, yes, that would lead to a deep ennui. But the same nanobots in the bloodstream that will keep us healthy—by destroying pathogens and reversing aging processes —will also vastly augment our intelligence and experiences.
As is its nature, the nonbiological portion of our intelligence will expand its powers exponentially, so it will ultimately predominate. The result will be accelerating change—so we will not be bored. We need to consider an important feature of the law of accelerating returns, which is a 50 percent annual deflation factor for information technologies, a factor which itself will increase.
Mar 20, - “I have also set the date for singularity — which is when humans will multiply our effective intelligence a billion fold, by merging with the. Mar 18, - What role will humans play in a post-singularity world? The predictions skew towards a date sooner than or even potentially sooner than A screen shot from page 10 of “Page 10 – Future Progress in Artificial. Sep 19, - For same-sex couples, the online dating trend has been even more dramatic, In , just one pornography website reported that their users.
Then they work quite well and are inexpensive. Cell phones are now at the inexpensive stage. There are countries in Asia where most people were pushing a plow fifteen years ago, yet now have thriving information economies and most people have a cell phone.
But that too will accelerate. Ten years from now, this will be a five year progression, and twenty years from now it will be only a two- to three-year lag.
This model applies not just to electronic gadgets but to anything having to do with information, and ultimately that will be mean everything of value, including all manufactured products. In biology, we went from a cost of ten dollars to sequence a base pair of DNA in to about a penny today.
So the digital divide and the have-have not divide is diminishing, not exacerbating. Ultimately, everyone will have great wealth at their disposal. We had a lot of war in the 20th century.
Fifty million people died in World War II, and there were many other wars. We also had a lot of intolerance, relatively little democracy until late in the century, and a lot of environmental pollution. All of these problems of the 20th century had no effect on the law of accelerating returns. The exponential growth of information technologies proceeded smoothly through war and peace, through depression and prosperity.
The emerging 21st century technologies tend to be decentralized and relatively friendly to the environment. With the maturation of nanotechnology, we will also have the opportunity to clean up the mess left from the crude early technologies of industrialization. The same can be said for every new step in technology.
Technologies do have to prove themselves. For every technology that is adopted, many are discarded. Each technology has to demonstrate that it meets basic human needs.
The technological singularity (also, simply, the singularity) is a hypothetical point in the future when technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in unfathomable changes to human civilization.?Superintelligence · ?Singularitarianism · ?IJ Good · ?Accelerating change. Your browser does not currently recognize any of the video formats available. Click here to visit our frequently asked questions about HTML5 video. Oct 5, - The singularity is that point in time when all the advances in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), will lead to machines that are smarter than human beings.
The cell phone, for example, meets our need to communicate with one another. We are not going to reach the Singularity in some single great leap forward, but rather through a great many small steps, each seemingly benign and modest in scope.